In 2024, Labour won a landslide majority at the general election, securing 63% of the UK’s 650 constituencies with 34% of votes cast. The Conservatives won 24% of the vote but just 19% of the seats. Labour had been rewarded and the Tories punished by the dynamics of first-past-the-post
My launch article made a projection that the share of the UK population identifying as Christian would fall to one third by 2031, mainly driven by an increase in the number of people with no religion. This article explains the model behind that projection, which is based on population forecasts
Every ten years, the constituent countries of the UK hold a census, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the population that informs key policy-making and planning decisions over the next decade. In 2021, this snapshot revealed that the share of the UK population identifying as Christian had declined significantly since 2011,