words about numbers

Projecting belief – our model explained

Our launch article made a projection that the share of the UK population identifying as Christian would fall to one third by 2031, mainly driven by an increase in the number of people with no religion. This article explains the model behind that projection, which is based on population forecasts

Projecting belief - UK religion in 2031

Every ten years, the constituent countries of the UK hold a census, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the population that informs key policy-making and planning decisions over the next decade. In 2021, this snapshot revealed that the share of the UK population identifying as Christian had declined significantly since 2011,