The road to Stormont 2027: voter attitudes and election battlegrounds
In a previous article, I investigated attitudes towards minorities in Northern Ireland, examining how those attitudes varied by political party support.
With a double-header election to Stormont and local councils now less than 9 months away, and LucidTalk’s latest voting intention poll suggesting that allegiances may be shifting in the wake of Jeffrey Donaldson’s conviction, this article investigates a wider set of social attitudes across the party divide.
Party strategy and positioning
Understanding the electorate is an important part of party political strategy and positioning, especially as parties finalise their campaign manifestos. Under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system used in Northern Ireland, this requires parties to consider at least three aspects of their appeal:
Firstly and most importantly, parties need to maximise the offer to their existing base, securing first-preferences and ensuring their voters turn out. Secondly, they will aim to appeal to voters from adjacent parties, hoping to win over their first-preference votes. Thirdly, they target second- and subsequent preference transfers, which become critical in determining which party wins the last few Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) or councillor spots in each electoral district.
Divining political and social opinion in the absence of polls
Understanding voters requires knowledge of their opinions. But as I wrote in my previous article, Northern Ireland is rarely polled for social attitudes. It is therefore harder to get a quantitative read on how Northern Irish voters' opinions vary by party compared to Great Britain, where multiple polls are conducted by several polling companies every week.
In the gap left by this lack of polling sits the Northern Ireland Life & Times survey (NILT). This is an extensive annual social attitudes survey, past editions of which can be interrogated to examine attitudes across a range of issues.
This article will use the last four editions of NILT, conducted since the last Stormont election in 2022.
Analysis of this data comes with some caveats: given its average age, we can't expect it to reflect the latest news and attitudinal trends, and some of the questions I examine here were only asked in one or two editions of the survey, so have smaller sample sizes or less recent data.
Nevertheless, the sample sizes for the statistics presented here (which are enumerated in a table at the bottom of this article) are robust, and in most cases the attitudes they represent are unlikely to have changed radically since the surveys took place.
The question I use to split respondents by voting intention also has a minor shortcoming: unfortunately, the options given for answering this question don't include the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party, currently polling at 12% according to LucidTalk. The Green party is broken out as a named option, but its support is well below 10%, meaning that the sample sizes of its voters are too small to present here. Other small parties such as People Before Profit (PBP) and Aontú are not broken out, but captured alongside the TUV in the "Other Party" option.
Due to these limitations, this analysis focuses on Northern Ireland's largest five parties by representation at Stormont, which are broken out individually by NILT: Sinn Féin, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), the Alliance Party, and the Ulster (UUP) and Democratic (DUP) Unionist Parties.
Surveying the lay of the land
We will start by looking at where these parties’ voters stand on some major issues. Some findings won't come as a surprise, but it’s always good to have suspicions backed up by data. Elsewhere there are surprises, such as the cross-party support for assisted dying, and the fact that nationalist parties are the most supportive of Ulster Scots.
Following this overview, we'll investigate some policy areas in detail, identify the likely battlegrounds, examine which parties are vulnerable on each issue, and discuss how their competitors might take advantage of these vulnerabilities by positioning themselves to maximise the electoral aims mentioned above.
First though, let's dive into a summary of where each party's voters stand on some key policy areas.
Overview of attitudes by party support
In the four years covered by this analysis, the NILT survey asked a total of 662 different questions. To select the most relevant of these, I applied a few filters and prioritisations:
Firstly, I excluded questions from the Background category. These can help us understand voter demographics, but they don't relate to attitudes, and are therefore less directly related to policy.
Secondly, I applied a chi-squared test to determine which answers displayed the most significant variance by party. I wanted to find the questions which differentiate voters – if each party's base felt the same about an issue, they would be unlikely to take distinctive stances on it.
Finally, from this subset of interesting questions, I chose eleven that most clearly mapped to a prospective policy position. The net level of support amongst voters of each party for policy stances relating to these questions is displayed in the chart below:
Some notable features jump out here. Firstly, there is net support across supporters of all parties for the first five policy directions. This is not a huge surprise for tougher sentencing – very few surveys find a majority in favour of shorter sentences.
However, it is striking that voters from all parties believe definitively that migrant workers benefit the economy, and support the idea that politicians should act to tackle climate change.
More surprising still is that there is net support across the party spectrum for both women's right to choose an abortion and terminally ill patients' right to end their lives. Even DUP voters, the most socially conservative group covered here, demonstrate net support for choice in both these cases.
Given that a second attempt will be made to pass an assisted dying bill in the upcoming Westminster term, ensuring its continued salience, and that Northern Ireland has devolved powers to enact its own legislation here, it will be interesting to see whether any party includes assisted dying in their 2027 manifesto.
Popular support for government promotion of the Irish language and Ulster Scots provides another fascinating story. Promotion of Irish is the single most polarising topic in the whole survey, breaking predictably along party lines with net support of +87 amongst Sinn Féin voters and net opposition of -81 for supporters of the DUP.
However, support for promotion of Ulster Scots reveals that – astonishingly – Ulster Unionist voters are the group most opposed, whereas SDLP and Sinn Féin voters are the only groups to display net support.
For other issues, some assumptions are confirmed – Alliance voters are unsurprisingly the most in favour of Integrated Education – whilst some surprises remain: would you have expected them to be as keen on taxing to spend as Sinn Féin voters, and significantly more so than those of the SDLP?
Rounding off the list, UUP voters straddle the fence when it comes to flags, whereas the chart shows with depressing clarity why both unionist parties are happy to campaign against rights for trans people, given how conflicted the other parties' voters are on a broadly representative question included here, compared to the DUP and UUP voters' relative level of consensus on this topic.
Likely election battlegrounds
In one idealistic version of the world, parties would set out their stalls based on moral conviction, economic judgement and a long-term vision for the best of the country. They would do this independently of received public opinion and their competitors' positioning, with the most popular vision winning out.
In reality, electoral calculus plays a significant role in policy positioning. Parties look for weaknesses in their opponents. They pursue activities that are expected to lose support from one flank, as long as these losses are outweighed by gains on the other. Sometimes this backfires, as seen recently with Labour's pursuit of Reform voters causing it to haemorrhage votes it had taken for granted on the left. It remains to be seen whether Andy Burnham will be able to win those votes back.
In the Northern Irish context, the five main parties have traditionally been placed on a spectrum from Sinn Féin on the nationalist left to the DUP on the unionist right. The two unionist and two nationalist parties are understood primarily to be competing for votes amongst themselves. In addition, the unionists have a resurgent TUV to contend with on the far right, whilst the nationalists have PBP and Aontú as smaller competitors. I will term the parties within each of these distinct sets as "adjacent".
As for Alliance, their goal in 2027 is likely to hold on to their strong showing from 2022, to compete with the UUP for first preference votes in a few key places, to defend against potential losses to the Greens, and to maximise transfers from everyone else, but with a particular eye on those from the SDLP, UUP and Sinn Féin. Alliance and the Greens may be considered adjacent to all parties to some degree, given their constitutional neutrality.
In this context, certain issues are likely to come to the fore. Parties are particularly vulnerable where a significant fraction of their base disagrees strongly with their position on that topic. Adjacent competitors with greater consensus on these topics can exploit that vulnerability to target such disaffected minorities.
Luckily, a large fraction of the NILT questions are structured to capture the strength of feeling on each topic, so we can apply a systematic approach to identify these areas for each party. Many of them overlap with the topics summarised above. So, without further ado, let's dive into the likely battlegrounds!
Assisted dying
As the summary chart above shows, there is net support across all five parties for the idea that terminally ill patients should have the right to end their own life. Digging into the granular responses to this question, which was asked in the 2024 NILT survey, reveals that this support is more equivocal amongst some parties than others:
These results should be considered in the context of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, which provided drama as the last session of the Westminster Parliament came to a close. Although MPs voted in favour of the bill in June 2025, it failed to progress through the House of Lords in time to become law, due to filibustering by a small group of peers.
Of the Northern Irish MPs who voted in the Commons, all the unionist MPs voted against, as did Sorcha Eastwood of Alliance (to the disappointment of many Alliance voters). As Sinn Féin do not take up their seats, they did not vote. Only Colum Eastwood of the SDLP voted for the bill, with his party colleague Claire Hanna abstaining.
The bill is set to return to the Commons after the Labour MP Lauren Edwards came second in the private member’s ballot and decided to bring it before MPs again.
Although the first vote was tabled as a matter of conscience, this time round, as her party's sole MP, Sorcha Eastwood may be encouraged to consider her vote carefully. This is an issue where her party can make a strong case for the new law, safe in the knowledge that the overwhelming majority of Alliance voters support it: Only 7% of Alliance voters definitely oppose assisted dying, with 78% probably or definitely believing it should be allowed.
Even more significant from an electoral perspective is the fact that many voters from other parties support this policy. Of the adjacent parties, 33% of both UUP and SDLP voters are definitely in favour, with similar numbers probably so. And a small majority of 55% of DUP voters either probably or definitely believe assisted dying should be allowed too, although it is very hard to see the party campaigning for it.
Although they are non-participants at Westminster, as a devolved issue, Sinn Féin will also be interested to see their voters' attitudes here. They have the lowest level of definite opposition at just 4%, with similar levels of support to Alliance, including the largest constituency believing that assisted dying should definitely be allowed at 47%.
It will be fascinating to see whether assisted dying policies make it into any party manifestos next May – the electoral calculus presented here suggests they would be attractive to many voters.
Climate change
The fact of cross-party support for climate action in the summary chart above may represent another slight surprise. Again, DUP voters are more equivocal on this topic that those of other parties, but they still demonstrate clear net support:
Survey aficionados may point out that questions of the form "would you like politicians to do more?", such as the one asked in this case, generally receive positive responses, irrespective of whether respondents consider the action in question to be a personal priority.
Nevertheless, the responses to a more neutrally-worded question from the same edition of the survey demonstrate that voters across the political spectrum believe climate change is real and that humans are its main cause:
This evidence suggests that if the DUP are considering reactionary policies that abandon or reverse climate targets (potentially inspired by the agenda being pushed by Kemi Badenoch), then they will be starkly out of touch with their voters, only 6% of whom deny that it is happening and only 18% of whom believe it is predominantly caused by natural processes.
On the other hand, a promise of decisive action on climate change is likely to receive broad support across the electorate.
Flying flags from lampposts
Here we come to our first issue where there isn't a consensus across parties. Perhaps unsurprisingly, DUP voters show emphatic support for the flying of flags from lampposts on special dates. However UUP voters are much more conflicted, with a third of them opposed or strongly opposed, whilst the other parties are firmly against this practice:
The question wording is notable here – it gauges support for flying flags "on special dates for particular celebrations". Support for year-round territorial demarcation is likely to be considerably lower.
This question also has the weakness that it doesn't map clearly to a policy position, unlike the following one, which asked respondents about flags being taken down from lampposts as soon as they appear, even if this causes trouble:
The policy suggested here is more radical than that outlined in Paula Bradshaw's Display of Flags and Emblems Bill, which is still open to consultation. Nevertheless, support for removal of flags is consistently high across all parties' voters except the DUP, with considerable strength of support on display.
This suggests that Alliance should be able to win some first preference votes from the UUP (in addition to benefitting from a significant number of transfers) if they can build credibility by delivering results here.
Support for Irish Language and Ulster Scots
During a cost of living crisis, it is quite remarkable that the single most divisive issue recorded in the 2025 NILT survey related to the promotion of the Irish language. This is even more remarkable given that, until very recently, Irish was widely claimed as cultural heritage by both traditional communities:
Unfortunately, the results of this survey indicate that its promotion has been successfully weaponised as a shibboleth in the culture war: Ian Paisley's son Kyle and DUP founding member Wallace Thompson may have attended an event last year showcasing the links between Irish Presbyterianism and Gaelic; but most of their party's voters appear significantly more hostile to engagement with the language, according to evidence from the NILT survey of the same year.
The real surprise from the Languages section of the 2025 survey comes from elsewhere though – the level of support for promotion of Ulster Scots:
Here the DUP is conflicted. In fact, on this topic, their voter base is practically indistinguishable from Sinn Féin's. And astonishingly, Ulster Unionist voters display the greatest net opposition to Ulster Scots, with 41% of their voters against its promotion, compared to only 19% of SDLP voters.
The recent Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann in Belfast proved to be a positive and inclusive cross-community celebration of all-Irish culture, attracting praise for showcasing Loyalist bands and music from ethnic minority communities in addition to traditional Irish music and culture.
In this spirit, the opportunity for Sinn Féin and the SDLP to champion Ulster Scots alongside Gaelic aligns with a vision for a united Ireland where all are welcome. Expect the case for this future to be confidently made throughout this election campaign and beyond.
Integrated Education
Integrated Education has been consistently championed by Alliance, and the statistics from the last two NILT surveys which asked a specific question on this topic demonstrate one reason why:
Whilst Alliance voters overwhelmingly prefer Integrated schools, the sector also receives significant support from other parts of the electorate. Only DUP voters have a net aversion to them, and even within that constituency, 30% would prefer an Integrated school.
This may explain why DUP Education Minister Paul Givan has walked a fine line on this topic, claiming to defend parental choice whilst practically opposing and frustrating this choice in many cases, as with his decision to deny parents at two Bangor schools their clearly expressed desire for transformation.
Migrant workers and asylum seekers
Immigration and asylum policy is set at Westminster level, so whilst these topics may occupy a significant fraction of the news agenda, there is not much that devolved governments can do about them. Nevertheless Northern Irish MPs that attend Westminster have plenty of opportunities to debate them and set out their respective stalls.
Recent analysis by Stormont's Executive Office, also based on the 2025 NILT survey, showed that attitudes to refugees and asylum seekers had hardened in 2025. Unfortunately the breakdown of 2025 data by party is not available yet, but this split is available for the three previous years, so we can examine their data to understand how opinion varies by voting intention:
Whilst the Executive Office report shows a hardening on the question of asylum seekers being allowed to stay in Northern Ireland (and others related to it), there is likely still significant net support across all parties (with the possible exception of the DUP). There is also clear cross-party agreement amongst voters that migrant workers benefit the Northern Irish economy:
In light of these figures, Northern Irish politicians should be confident that if they make a case in defence of refugees' and asylum seekers' rights, and of migrant workers' contribution to the economy, they will have the support of the majority of the voting public, despite what prevailing media narratives may suggest.
Economic policy
The final topic I will cover relates to economic attitudes. Again, Stormont's powers here are limited, but economic positioning and priorities are nevertheless an important aspect of a manifesto, so the parties will be interested to know where their voters stand.
Of the questions that have been asked in the last four years of the NILT survey, the most pertinent relate to voters' desire to reduce inequality, and their support for increasing taxes to fund public services.
Opinions by party relating to these questions are shown below:
It probably isn't surprising to see that Sinn Féin voters are the most economically "left-wing" in their support of income redistribution. What may come as a surprise is that Alliance voters are just as supportive of increasing taxes to fund public services, and significantly more keen to do so than those of the SDLP.
Conclusions and final thoughts
It continues to amaze me that Northern Ireland is so sparsely polled. If this analysis were transplanted to Great Britain and applied to the main Westminster parties, it would sit alongside hundreds of competing views, arguments and interpretations based on quantitative survey data, whereas here, in between quarterly LucidTalk polls which bolt on the occasional few questions on social attitudes, pickings are very slim indeed.
Hopefully this article has yielded some insight. At the least, I hope it sparks debate and curiosity. What do Northern Irish voters think and what do they want? Do political parties take their votes and opinions for granted, and do they do so based upon wrong-headed or prejudiced assumptions?
I also think it offers some clear conclusions. Across party lines, Northern Irish voters overwhelmingly support assisted dying and would like to see flags disappear from lampposts, unless special permission has been granted to fly them for limited periods.
Finally, across a range of other topics (at least according to this evidence), they have more progressive beliefs and opinions than the day-to-day discourse in our media might suggest. Even those that vote DUP.
Sample sizes
The table below (or here if you're reading the email) shows the sample sizes used to calculate each dot or bar in this article.
As always, all the code and data behind this article are available on github. If you have any questions, please leave a comment or get in touch at jack@believethedata.org.
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